MEDIA STATEMENT
18 September 2026
Australia’s national terrorism threat level is set by ASIO, not by politicians.
It is determined by our intelligence professionals on the basis of the information and intelligence available to them, and that is exactly how it should be.
For almost eight years, from 2014, Australia’s terrorism threat level was set at “Probable”, meaning there is a greater than 50 per cent chance of an onshore terrorist attack or attack planning within the next twelve months.
In November 2022, ASIO lowered it to “Possible” because it was satisfied the counter-terrorism caseload had moderated and fewer extremists had both the intent and capability to carry out an attack.
Then, in August 2024, Director-General Mike Burgess raised it back to “Probable” as Australia’s security environment deteriorated.
Since then, the security environment has continued to deteriorate.
We have witnessed the horrific terrorist attack at Bondi costing 15 innocent lives. This was the worst terrorist attack on Australian soil.
We are now learning that since Bondi, authorities have disrupted four further plans subsequently assessed as major terrorism plots.
ASIO has also disclosed another 16 serious, but less imminent, terrorist plots have been stopped since Bondi.
That represents a significant escalation in the risk confronting Australians.
I am not questioning ASIO’s previous decisions about where the threat level has been set.
But given what we now know, I believe there is a legitimate question that needs to be asked:
Is it now time for Australia’s national terrorism threat level to be lifted further?
Mike Burgess himself has warned that the security environment is degrading and that acts of politically motivated violence are becoming more likely than the current setting of “Probable”.
The next level is “Expected”, and under the current framework that applies where there is intelligence indicating an attack is expected.
If our intelligence agencies have disrupted four major terrorist plots since Bondi, alongside 16 further serious, alleged terrorist offences, Australians are entitled to ask whether we have now reached the point where the threat level should reflect that deterioration.
And if the answer is that the existing framework does not allow it because of the way the next threshold is defined, then perhaps we need to examine whether that framework remains appropriate for the threat environment we now face.
This is not about creating fear.
It is about being clear-eyed about the risks confronting Australians, and about ensuring our intelligence and law enforcement agencies, who are doing extraordinary work disrupting these threats, have the preparedness and support they need. Australians should be very proud of our men and women who serve and protect us in our intelligence and law enforcement agencies. They are amongst the best in the world, but to be the best, they have to be properly equipped.
Government and the Parliament must make sure they have the settings, resources and frameworks required to keep Australians safe.
[ENDS]
Media Contact: Brendan West – 0402 556 646 – Brendan.west@aph.gov.au